Bitcoin International news

Bitcoin is rallying due to interest rate forecasts, says Coinjournal’s Dan Ashmore

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin is trading above the $28k level for the first time since June 2022.

  • Coinjournal’s Dan Ashmore believes that the interest rate forecasts are responsible for the ongoing rally by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

  • Many in the market still consider the recent banking crisis as the reason why investors are entering the crypto market.

Interest rate forecasts behind Bitcoin’s rally

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has been performing excellently over the past few weeks. At press time, the price of Bitcoin stands at $28,411, up by 13% over the last seven days.

Many in the crypto space attribute the ongoing crypto rally to the collapse of a few banks, including Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank. 

However, during an interview with CNBC, Coinjournal’s Dan Ashmore pointed out that Bitcoin’s rally has to do with the interest rate forecasts rather than the recent banking crisis.

Regarding the ongoing rally, Ashmore said;

“It is a reaction to the complete flip in interest rate forecasts in the wider economy. If you go back to before the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, there was an 83% probability that the interest rate would be increased by 100 basis points by the summer. Today, when we look at that, it is completely the opposite, and there is almost 100% of rate cuts.”

He added that the crypto market is reacting to the probability that the Fed’s recent interest rate hikes are coming to an end.

Interest rate cut is music to crypto investors

With Bitcoin trading at $28k per coin, investors would be optimistic that prices could soar higher over the coming days and weeks.

According to Ashmore, cryptocurrencies trade as risk-on assets, and an interest rate cut is music to the ears of crypto investors. 

Ashmore also discussed the correlation between cryptocurrencies and tech stocks. According to the Coinjournal analyst, while many expect crypto to be an independent hedge, the assets still very much correlate with the stock market, especially tech stocks. He concluded that

“The NASDAQ index rises, Bitcoin’s price also rises. The NASDAQ falls, and Bitcoin also falls a little more. The last couple of weeks have been interesting as Bitcoin has outperformed the NASDAQ. But it is a reflection of the fact that Bitcoin is trading in correlation with the interest rate forecasts.”

The post Bitcoin is rallying due to interest rate forecasts, says Coinjournal’s Dan Ashmore appeared first on CoinJournal.

Magic Eden launches Bitcoin NFT marketplace

  • Magic Eden has launched the first fully audited Bitcoin NFT marketplace.
  • The marletplace has integrated two non-custodial wallets to support seamless transactions.
  • Magic Eden now supports NFT marketplaces for Solana, Ethereum, Polygon and Bitcoin.

Cross-chain NFT platform Magic Eden has added to the impetus around NFT Ordinals on Bitcoin by launching a fully audited Bitcoin NFT marketplace. The digital artifacts marketplace will feature everything from images and audio clips.

Magic Eden’s move means traders within the ecosystem are set to benefit from being able to buy and sell Bitcoin-based inscriptions tied to satoshi – the smallest unit of measuring value for BTC.

A new dimension to NFT universe

In a press release published on Tuesday, Magic Eden noted the infrastructure supporting Bitcoin inscriptions is growing, even as the network counts over 400,000 such digital artifacts so far. 

At the moment, the Bitcoin NFT marketplace has integrated two non-custodial wallets – Hiro and Xverse – with support for features such as listing, delisting and buying and selling. The marketplace already offers access to more than 70 collections.

Commenting on the development, Magic Eden co-founder and CEO Jack Lu, noted:

Adding a Bitcoin marketplace is really exciting for our team, considering it is the grandfather of all blockchains and we are all passionate about blockchain. Bitcoin Ordinals bring a whole new dimension into the universe of NFTs.”

Part of the early efforts aimed at accelerating adoption include Magic Eden’s partnership with 13 top collections, including Inscribed Pepes, Taproot Wizards and Bitcoin Bandits. Digital artfacts on the platform will be subject to top quality filtering, with collectors having access to details such as Ordinal rarity, name, inscription number, age and so forth.

On Bitcoin, all media that is uploaded onto the chain cannot be changed or removed,” Lu said in a statement. “This simplicity is embraced by many creators who want to create true collectibles that are inscribed onto the chain. We’re excited to bring our winning marketplace user experience we’ve developed over the last year and a half to Bitcoin.”

Magic Eden’s release of a Bitcoin NFFT marketplace builds on the company’s solid foundation as a top provider of blockchain and Web3 solutions. While it remains the leading NFT marketplace for Solana, this latest move adds to recent expansions to Ethereum and Polygon.

The post Magic Eden launches Bitcoin NFT marketplace appeared first on CoinJournal.

Bloomberg analyst: Crypto supercycle likely on as BTC outperforms gold

  • Bitcoin is outperforming commodities and gold so far in 2023, with BTC showing a 10x outperformance of the precious metal.
  • Mike McGlone, a senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, says Bitcoin could be in a new super cycle.
  • He earlier noted BTC above $25,000 demonstrated the cryptocurrency’s divergent strength.

Mike McGlone, a senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has noted that the crypto sector could be looking at a new super cycle amid bitcoin’s outperformance of commodities.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin (BTC) is so far beating top performing commodity asset gold in 2023, with BTC up nearly 10x more to suggest the flagship cryptocurrency may be in a super cycle. BTC price is up 79% year-to-date at the time of writing. Comparatiely, gold price has only gained 5.8% YTD, currently poised around $1,942. 

McGlone shared the outlook in comments shared via Twitter on Tuesday, his view of the market coming as bitcoin price continued to hover above $28,000. 

Looking for a super cycle? Bitcoin Outperforms Commodities With Declining Risk – Bitcoin beating gold, the top-performing old-guard commodity in 2023 to March 20, by almost 10x may be indicative of a super cycle happening in the crypto,” the Bloomberg strategist stated.

Bitcoin’s divergent strength

According to McGlone, Bitcoin has one advantage over most commodities – its “nascent stage of low and rising adoption” as well as diminishing supply. He observes that BTC shows an elongated upward trajectory in terms of its price when compared to the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index.

The outlook is similar across most assets and that despite a bottoming out of the 260-day volatility relative to commodities, Bitcoin is likely to recover vastly versus the asset class as bulls eye new highs.

As for the latest spike in Bitcoin price, the analyst points to the banking crisis and the issues around fractional reserves. In his view, such concerns are likely to be “shining a light” on Bitcoin’s attributes. On what could happen next for BTC, he opined:

Relative strength vs. most assets may portend Bitcoin’s inflection toward global digital collateral and potential to trade more like gold [and] US Treasury bonds. Central banks still tightening despite plunging commodities and a banking crisis adds to severe economic-reset risks.”

Last week, McGlone pointed to the events in the finance and banking industry as a factor that could aid Bitcoin’s march towards becoming more of a hedge asset. Continuing weakness in the banking ecosystem portended a scenario where the benchmark cryptocurrency eventually trades like gold and US Treasury long bonds.

Bitcoin’s resilience above $25,000 would be an indicator of its divergent strength, he added.

The post Bloomberg analyst: Crypto supercycle likely on as BTC outperforms gold appeared first on CoinJournal.

10+ Best Cryptocurrencies to Invest in Now – What Crypto to Buy Today for the Best ROI in 2023 and Beyond

It’s an incredible time to invest in cryptocurrency, with many analysts claiming that the bear market is now behind us and that the crypto market is on the way toward the next bull market. That said, identifying the best projects can be difficult, so it can be useful to keep a close eye on the sentiment of smart investors to understand where the opportunities lie.

What are the best cryptos that offer investors the biggest profits?Basic Attention Token

Several factors play a role in the potential success of a cryptocurrency project, and there is no doubt that the token’s utility and the community’s strength are vital to strong prospects. 

With that in mind, here are some of the projects that experts all seem to believe could see positive price growth over 2023 and beyond:

  • AltSignals (ASI)
  • Metacade (MCADE)
  • Bitcoin (BTC)
  • Shiba Inu (SHIB)
  • Chainlink (LINK)
  • The Graph (GRT)
  • Ethereum (ETH)
  • Dogecoin (DOGE)
  • Binance Coin (BNB)
  • Uniswap (UNI)
  • Cardano (ADA)
  • Basic Attention Token (BAT)

AltSignals – A revolution in trading signals

What is AltSignals?

AltSignals is taking the investment world by storm. The project is a rare opportunity to invest in a presale with many users on board and an established product. AltSignals is perhaps best known for its innovative AltAlgo™product, which enables traders to gain an edge over the competition and has helped drive the 1,500 signals sent out by AltSignals with an impressive 64% success rate. 

The project is now looking to the next stage of cutting-edge signals development by building the new ActualizeAI product — an AI-powered next step in innovation that almost guarantees to drive unbelievable success rates for its users.

Not only does the ASI token provide holders the opportunity for exclusive access to the ActualizeAI product, ensuring an incredible advantage over its competitors, but holders can also join the private AI Members Club — granting access to a range of wider benefits and earning opportunities in the process.

What are the reasons to invest in AltSignals?

AltSignals offers unbelievable upside for investors, with a community of 50,000 users ready and waiting. Given that AltSignals also boasts a 4.9/5 Trustpilot rating, it’s hard to see the downside of the investment.

As the development of the product continues, holders who get in early could also have their profits compounded, with token value appreciation coupled with access to bleeding-edge trading signals at the same time.  

What are the risks of investing in AltSignals?

It’s hard to see the risks of the ASI presale, although the crypto market as a whole remains highly volatile, so this should be considered before any investment choice.

>>> You can participate in the AltSignals presale here <<<

Metacade – A incredible gaming arcade 

What is Metacade?

Metacade is an innovative new project that has released ambitious plans to build the world’s largest play-to-earn arcade. The Metacade ecosystem enables users to earn rewards for gaming and wider contributions to the ecosystem, which could boost user growth and retention over time.

Many crypto industry analysts believe that allowing users to earn crypto rewards is a clever strategic decision, so it’s no surprise that the project’s play-to-earn arcade makes it a popular choice for the best cryptocurrency to invest in.

The project also benefits from using the Ethereum blockchain, which is secure and reliable. 

Why should you consider buying Metacade?

The project is proving to be one of the most popular crypto presales, and the price of MCADE is seen by many as being at a huge discount compared to the project’s potential. Early investors could see a lot of buying pressure as early as this year, especially if the appeal of earning crypto rewards quickly builds a big user base. It’s now in the final stage of the presale so it’s the last chance to buy before it lists on exchanges.

What are the risks of investing in Metacade?

As a crypto project, Metacade is operating in a highly volatile market, and so like other cryptocurrencies, investors should consider this before investing.

>>> You can participate in the Metacade final stage presale here <<<

Bitcoin – The market leader

What is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin began more than a decade ago and has cemented its position as the most popular crypto to buy, thanks to a high level of decentralization and being considered stable — at least in the crypto market.

Many believe that Bitcoin has the potential to replace fiat currencies, and that sort of real-world value would be required to drive a high level of growth in the household name cryptocurrency.

Why should you buy Bitcoin?

While Bitcoin’s market cap is very high compared to most projects and certainly for a digital currency, it might still be the best crypto to buy for more conservative crypto investors. If TradFi money starts to move into cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is the likely destination for a large part of that, and so BTC could still see some punchy price rises in its future.

Even if Bitcoin doesn’t replace fiat currencies completely, it could also find a role as a store of value and an inflation hedge in the future. While the token remains a long-term investment for many, there’s no doubt that the blockchain technology that Bitcoin kickstarted is here to stay.

What are the risks of investing in Bitcoin?

The crypto space has developed substantially since the release of Bitcoin. In some ways, projects that enable functionality like smart contracts are favored regarding the disruptive use cases they make available.

Shiba Inu – A strong community pivoting to utility

What is Shiba Inu?

Shiba Inu is a meme coin project that Dogecoin heavily inspired and, like most meme coins, began with very little utility. It managed to build up a large and passionate community. It could pivot relatively effectively to DeFi, giving the SHIB token a level of utility that it did not always possess.

Why should you buy Shiba Inu?

The enthusiasm found in the SHIB community, alongside the accessibility of the brand, means that Shiba Inu could perform well as a project that capitalizes on the limited awareness of crypto investment opportunities and serves as an entry point for those entering the space for the first time.

This could mean that the price of SHIB has some way to go, provided that it can keep its momentum and continue attracting new holders to the DeFi use cases of the platform, such as earning rewards for providing liquidity on Shiba Swap.

What are the risks of investing in Shiba Inu?

The project’s market capitalization is high, which inevitably limits the increases the token can act on. As more crypto assets build on compelling use cases, many will see other utility-based tokens offering more bang for their buck.

Chainlink – Bringing the real world on-chain

What is Chainlink?

Chainlink provides a broad range of Web3 services, which focus on the ability of their project to bring off-chain data into smart contracts. The project features a decentralized oracle network (DON) that uses financial incentives to ensure the accuracy of the data provided to its customers. As a result, it boasts the most partnerships of any crypto project.

Chainlink also has a passionate community of holders who have long considered LINK the best cryptocurrency to invest in. They believe that Chainlink’s next focus, interoperability, could see the price of LINK skyrocket if it is used across the enterprise space too.

Why should you buy Chainlink?

Plenty of decentralized applications already use Chainlink services, making native token LINK a popular crypto asset for utility investors. The token is implemented on the Ethereum blockchain but is chain-agnostic, widening its adoption target.

Secure data is a big requirement of many crypto projects and especially in areas like decentralized finance. As more decentralized applications come online, we could see more and more smart contracts needing access to data through Chainlink over time.

What are the risks of investing in Chainlink?

Chainlink is already very well known within the crypto space, and while it may remain a candidate for best crypto to buy, it might present more modest gains than those that can be found elsewhere. 

The Graph – Indexing blockchain data 

What is The Graph?

The Graph is a crypto project that enables users to query blockchains for their data, making it possible to build use cases that require data from blockchains without hosting expensive nodes for every chain yourself.

The project uses the GRT native token to support different roles in The Graph ecosystem. While it uses blockchain technology, it also boasts use cases that do not themselves have to be decentralized applications within Web3.

Many investors see The Graph as a key part of the future of Web3, as blockchain technology helps drive a new set of experiences across the web. 

Why should you buy The Graph?

While GRT fell significantly during the crypto winter, the project boasts a lot of utility by allowing users to access so much data. The adoption of Web3 is slowly but surely building speed, and The Graph looks well-positioned to secure a big slice of the data market as the year progresses. 

What are the risks of investing in The Graph?

The adoption of blockchain technology is growing, but not at warp speed. It’s likely to be many years before we see the big shift from Web 2.0, so while GRT is compelling, it is definitely considered a long-term investment by holders who deeply understand the project. 

Ethereum – The original layer-1 protocol

What is Ethereum?

Ethereum is perhaps best known as the creator of smart contracts and has proved immensely successful in capturing and retaining a huge chunk of the layer-1 market it created. Many see Ethereum as the best crypto to buy due to its dominant position, and given the incredible uptime the blockchain has delivered, it will be difficult to beat.

Many crypto assets are based on the Ethereum blockchain to enable them to benefit from its reputation for being secure and reliable. While Ethereum is not considered a digital currency in the sense of payments, crypto enthusiasts understand that it has a huge reach regarding the number of industries it could disrupt. 

Why should you buy Ethereum?

The Ethereum ecosystem is a very popular choice for developers, and this could mean a high growth percentage over the coming years. The crypto winter did little to reduce the enthusiasm for the Ethereum network, and we could see the cryptocurrency market respond well to the moves Ethereum is making following its recent move to proof-of-stake.  

What are the risks of investing in Ethereum?

Ethereum has had a reputation for very high transaction fees, and while the project has seen these reduced over the last year, there is a long way to go before it can compete on that front with the Binance Smart Chain.

Dogecoin – The first meme coin

What is Dogecoin?

Dogecoin is a project that Billy Markus began as a joke in 2014. Of all crypto projects, Dogecoin has been on one of the most impressive journeys, making its way to near the top of the crypto market due to the passionate community.

The main use case for Dogecoin is as an alternative form of payment, a digital currency similar to the main use case for Bitcoin and LTC (often considered the silver to Bitcoin’s gold).

Why should you buy Dogecoin?

Dogecoin might be the most popular crypto to invest in for newcomers to crypto, and this gives the project a big advantage over more technically complex and intimidating projects. The best cryptocurrency projects are the ones that have the largest user bases, and despite being a meme coin, Dogecoin boasts low transaction fees and is incredibly well known.

What are the risks of investing in Dogecoin?

Dogecoin sees itself as the future of money, but whether it could handle the vast number of global transactions without some sort of scaling solution is unlikely. It also has a very high market cap considering the relatively low level of adoption of the project for real-world use cases.

Binance Coin – A popular centralized ecosystem 

What is Binance Coin?

Binance is the biggest dedicated crypto exchange in the world, and its trading volume is something that a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange can only dream of. Binance has expanded significantly beyond the exchange, including its own blockchain — the Binance Smart Chain.

Binance provides great support to projects launching on the BSC, and many investors prefer to back crypto assets like Binance Coin, which have high investments even if they lack decentralization.

Why should you buy Binance Coin?

Binance provides a high throughput and low fee environment for developers and will likely continue to see huge growth on the platform. Should the chain capture one or two high-volume projects that go mainstream, we could see the price of native token BNB increase significantly. BNB can also be staked to earn rewards, making it one of the best cryptos to buy. 

What are the risks of investing in Binance Coin?

The days of securing BNB at a huge discount are behind us, and the project now has a very high market cap compared to many others. It also is battling against the Ethereum blockchain, and if TradFi exchanges enter the space in the coming years, Binance’s dominance might be challenged. 

Uniswap – Ethereum’s most popular decentralized exchange 

What is Uniswap?

Uniswap is a decentralized exchange that allows users to trade cryptocurrency in a trustless way. The platform allows for a huge amount of crypto assets to be traded and is one of the earliest ways to acquire tokens for new projects, as it uses smart contracts to make the trades.

As Uniswap is implemented for the Ethereum blockchain, it benefits from the proof-of-stake consensus for security, and its close connection with ETH, which is widely considered one of the best crypto projects.

Why should you buy Uniswap?

The native token UNI is used to facilitate trades. So holders of UNI believe that the ability to earn rewards by providing liquidity puts it among the best crypto out there. If we see a rise in the trading of projects with low market capitalization, Uniswap could continue to grow over the coming years. 

What are the risks of investing in Uniswap?

As more and more traditional exchanges get involved in crypto, we could see many of them utilize smart contracts to try to take some of the trading volume in this space. Uniswap is also at the mercy of Ethereum’s market share and already has a market cap.

Cardano – An alternative home for decentralized apps

What is Cardano?

Cardano is another proof-of-stake layer-1 protocol that has produced many projects building on its blockchain. Of all blockchain platforms, Cardano boasts some of the most ardent crypto investors in the space, with the crypto industry still unsure whether Cardano can prove reliable (and with low enough gas fees) to take on the Ethereum network.

The project uses its cryptocurrency, ADA, to pay for gas fees on transactions, although its current gas price on Cardano is much lower than that on chains like Ethereum. The project has also been able to gain exposure as a result of its outspoken founder, Charles Hoskinson.

Why should you buy Cardano?

Cardano has a large development community, building projects that support in-game assets, real-world rewards, virtual worlds, and much more. The dedicated community means the momentum will likely stay, which could mean big returns over time.

What are the risks of investing in Cardano?

Whether other cryptos offer better layer-1 functionality is debatable, but Cardano has struggled with releases even during the current bear market. While many consider ADA among the best cryptos to buy now, there are likely to be other digital assets that could bring higher rewards, especially if invested in a hardware wallet for the long term.

Solana – A VC-backed layer-1 protocol

What is Solana?

Solana is a layer-1 protocol project that uses the crypto token SOL for its fees, similar to other cryptocurrencies. The SOL token can also act as a governance token, and Solana has formed partnerships with many large companies. 

Solana has formed an active development community, with projects allowing users to buy virtual plots of land, mobile gaming rewards, and many for trading cryptocurrencies. Despite some centralized servers dominating the network, the project remains very popular with blockchain purists. 

Why should you buy Solana?

SOL is a crypto token that sees price movement based on the activity on its network. With many a presale launch on the platform, the native cryptocurrency SOL could catch a boost from a successful project launched on the chain. 

The cryptocurrency markets can be difficult to predict. Still, SOL is certainly a digital asset that could provide real-world utility if use cases like tokenization are picked up on the platform. Many other crypto assets across the cryptocurrency space are built on or integrated with the Solana network.

What are the risks of investing in Solana?

SOL is a popular coin, and although many think it could have huge potential, it has a much higher market cap than many other coins. With SOL on all centralized exchanges and most investors’ crypto portfolios, some could argue it’s already at a fair market value. Its valuation compared to early projects rules it out of the biggest gainers.

What is the best crypto to buy right now?

Anyone can see that there are a lot of interesting opportunities out there for investors right now, but it’s difficult to see past AltSignals as an incredible investment that seems destined for the big time. 

How long it will take for the token to see massive price appreciation remains to be seen. Most investors wouldn’t be surprised to see incredible returns this year as more of the market realizes the huge opportunity.

Related Crypto FAQs

What are cryptocurrencies?

A cryptocurrency is a set of digital or virtual tokens that utilize cryptography for security and operate independently of any central authority. They are decentralized, meaning they are not controlled by governments or financial institutions and are usually based on a peer-to-peer blockchain network.

Cryptocurrencies offer several advantages over traditional fiat currencies, including lower transaction fees, faster transfer times, and increased privacy. They also provide greater financial inclusion, allowing people without access to traditional banking services to participate in the global economy.

While the crypto market has seen extreme volatility and is not without risks, the potential for significant returns has attracted investors and traders worldwide. As cryptocurrencies evolve and gain acceptance, they are poised to revolutionize how we think about money and financial transactions.

What is a crypto presale?

A crypto presale is a fundraising event allowing investors to purchase tokens or coins of a new cryptocurrency project before its official launch. This is usually done to raise funds for development, marketing, and other expenses related to launching the cryptocurrency.

During a presale, the tokens or coins are typically sold at a discounted rate to early investors. The idea is to incentivize investors to invest in the project early on, with the expectation that the value of the tokens or coins will increase in the future.

Crypto presales are often seen as a way for investors to get in on the ground floor of a potentially promising project, but they can also be risky. As with any investment, there is no guarantee of returns, and investors should do their due diligence before participating in a presale.

Which crypto will explode in 2023?

Many projects could perform well over 2023, although many analysts tasked with finding the best cryptos to buy are returning to AltSignals as a fantastic opportunity for big returns. 

Which crypto to buy today for the short term?

The best crypto for short-term gains is difficult to identify, but choosing a crypto to invest in for gains in 2023 relies on project momentum this year. AltSignals could do well in both the short and long term due to its active user base, and the low market cap makes it a strong choice for big profits. 

Which crypto to buy today for the long term?

Other projects that could perform well in the cryptocurrency market include the likes of Metacade, as play-to-earn is set to be a huge growing market and could be among the best cryptos to buy for long-term returns if its play-to-earn arcade can build a large user base.

Which crypto has the most potential?

When many investors think of cryptocurrency, they think of the crypto asset Bitcoin. But with smart contracts such as in the ethereum ecosystem enabling decentralized finance, many projects have big potential. Projects built on proof-of-stake chains are considered wise investments, and a low market capitalization is necessary for big returns.

What is the best cryptocurrency to invest in 2023?

The best crypto to buy in 2023 will likely have a low market capitalization, and all the best cryptocurrency projects need a great deal of utility. This makes the best crypto to invest in more likely to be an early-stage project such as AltSignals over a high market cap project such as Bitcoin. 

Are there cryptocurrencies ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds)?

There are a growing number of cryptocurrency ETFs, although compared with the best cryptos to buy in the market, they are likely to offer more modest returns. For conservative investors more comfortable with a digital asset like Bitcoin than projects in decentralized finance and other cryptocurrency use cases, ETFs could be a good option. 

You can participate in the Metacade final stage presale here.

You can participate in the AltSignals presale here.

The post 10+ Best Cryptocurrencies to Invest in Now – What Crypto to Buy Today for the Best ROI in 2023 and Beyond appeared first on CoinJournal.

Over two-thirds of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in a year

Key Takeaways

  • Long-term holders continue to sit on their Bitcoin stashes
  • Two-thirds of the supply has not changed hands in the last year, despite rampant volatility and a collapse of the Bitcoin price
  • Over half the supply has not moved in 2 years or longer

“Supply squeeze” is a seductive phrase thrown around among Bitcoin enthusiasts. 

It refers to the predicted propelling upwards of the Bitcoin supply as a result of the supply cap – there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins – and a constant increase in demand. 

Whether this comes to fruition remains to be seen. But there does appear to be a growing cohort of Bitcoin investors who are holding. In fact, over two-thirds of the entire supply has not moved in over a year, an all-time high. 

To be precise, 67.9% of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year. That is extremely high, especially when considering the last year have brought its fair share of scandals, including the respective crashes triggered by LUNA, Celsius and FTX. 

Combining these scandals with the most rapid monetary tightening in the wider economy, which have seen interest rates rise from near-zero to close to 5%, and the crypto market has been pillaged. 

Looking at the price action over the last 12 months, Bitcoin has fallen from $41,000 to $15,000 and is now trading at $28,000, with more than its fair share of ups and downs in between. And yet, two-thirds of the supply has been stagnant. 

Branching further out, over half the supply has now not moved in two years, close to 40% hasn’t moved in three years, while 28% has been stationary for 5 years. 

Of course, lost coins will be included in all these statistics. Bitcoin has been around since 2009, and that means people have died, and with them access to their coins has vanished. 

There are also simple cases of lost keys, people still roaming the Earth but with no access to their wallets. Let us not forget that Bitcoin was just a niche Internet plaything not so long ago, trading for less than $1 per coin. 

Not to mention, Satoshi Nakamoto’s mammoth stash of an estimated 1 million coins, or over 5% of the entire supply, remains untouched and included in the above stats. 

So make of it what you will, but Bitcoin still remains quite an illiquid market and with a dwindling supply, it is easy to see the narrative pushed by enthusiasts that if demand continues to rise, the price will only go upward. 

Of course, whether that demand will indeed continue to rise is another question entirely, and a much harder one to answer. 

The post Over two-thirds of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in a year appeared first on CoinJournal.

Coinbase CTO bets Bitcoin to $1M in 90 days, but I’m not sure even he believes it

Key Takeaways

  • Former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan bet an anonymous Twitter account $1 million that Bitcoin would trade at $1 million or greater in 90 days
  • Srinivasan is predicting imminent hyperinflation and a collapse of the US dollar
  • Bet is on wildly unfavourable terms, with the other side of the bet, James Medlock, able to lock in massive profit risk-free by simply buying a call option with a $1 million strike for insurance 
  • Bet comes nearly a year to the day after Do Kwon’s infamous bet with another anonymous Twitter account over LUNA price

I’m no chemist, but one of the most potent mixtures known to humankind has to be that of ego and money. 

In what may go down in the annals of Internet history, former Coinbase chief technology officer and prominent angel investor Balaji Srinivasan bet $1 million that the price of Bitcoin would be $1 million or greater in 90 days’ time. 

The bet was confirmed over Twitter, with the other side taken by anonymous meme enthusiast James Medlock. “(My wife) is the only person who knows I am James Medlock”, he posted in another tweet. “And I immediately told her about the bet”. 

What is the bet?

The bet started when Medlock posted the below tweet, an innocuous tweet outlining his belief that the US would not experience hyperinflation, apparently in response to some crypto enthusiasts declaring that it was inevitable. 

It should have ended there. But in came Srinivasan declaring he “will take that bet”. Not only that, but on wildly unfavourable terms. The setup is this: Medlock sends 1 BTC and Srinivasan sends $1 million to escrow today, with the latter denominated in the stablecoin USDC. 

The logic is that, were hyperinflation to occur and the US dollar to collapse, Bitcoin would reap the gains and explode upwards. Hence, the bet turned from hyperinflation into the Bitcoin price. 

If Bitcoin trades at $1 million or greater on June 17th, the kitty is Medlock’s. If it doesn’t Srinivasan takes the bounty.

The bet makes no sense

Obviously, this bet makes no sense for a variety of reasons. Firstly, the original tweet was a joke, as $1 million in the event of hyperinflation would become worthless. 

But the crux of it is the terms. Looking at market odds, this is a longshot of almost impossible odds. So much so, in fact, that a massive chunk of the bet could be guaranteed to Medlock in a risk-free manner in about 30 seconds, should he so please. 

All he would have to do is go to the market and buy a call option on Bitcoin with a strike price of $1 million dollars on the same expiry date of the bet (June 17th). This would cost pennies in comparison, and a massive chunk of the $1 million could be pocketed. 

Of course, everybody knows this, and the bet is nothing more than a grab at publicity or some sort of self-marketing stunt by Srinivasan. He reportedly already holds a massive stash of Bitcoin in any case, with the bet not being overly material to him. Call me a cynic, but there is also the fact that Srinivasan launched a podcast a month ago. 

The funny part is that Medlock didn’t have 1 BTC, worth $26,000 at the time, to hand. Poker player Isaac Haxton stepped in to cover the 1 BTC (without taking any upside). Medlock has also said he will donate a total of 70% of the winnings after taxes to charity – yet he will still pocket a cool $300,000 from a tweet which was a literal joke. 

What would have to happen for the bet to win?

Were this bet to win, it is hard to imagine what the world would look like. A 3600% increase to $1 million per Bitcoin in 90 days would place the market cap of Bitcoin at close to $20 trillion. That is a mind-boggling number – for one thing, it is more than all mortgage debt in the US. 

For this to happen in 90 days would likely mean a total collapse of the economy and society as we know it. The banking sector evaporating into thin air and the US dollar collapsing would throw the world into chaos, with an almost unimaginable level of crime, unrest and anarchy. 

People would lose their life savings and society would collapse near-instantly. And yet, there are Bitcoiners cheering on Srinivasan in this bet. Go figure. 

In an amusing twist of fate, the bet comes nearly a year to the day that LUNA founder Do Kwon bet with another anonymous Twitter account that LUNA would be a lower price in one year than it was then. This week marked the one-year point, and I think any cryptocurrency investor knows what has happened to LUNA. 

Some people have too much money and just don’t know what to do with it, I suppose. 

The post Coinbase CTO bets Bitcoin to $1M in 90 days, but I’m not sure even he believes it appeared first on CoinJournal.

Top 10,000 Bitcoin investors control one-third of the supply

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin is a decentralised asset, yet large amounts are controlled by a select few
  • The top 114 addresses hold nearly 3 million BTC, 15.5% of the total supply
  • The anonymous Satoshi Nakamoto holds 5.2% of the supply
  • MicroStrategy hold 0.68% of the supply


Whether you love or hate Bitcoin, the world’s first cryptocurrency has thrown the word “decentralised” into the modern vernacular.  

But while Bitcoin is the closest thing to a decentralised asset out there, it is worth noting that it does possess pressure points. Not central points of failure, but rather large holders who do possess significant amounts of the currency. In some cases, enough to cause a serious stir should those coins ever hit the market all at once.

Satoshi Nakamoto

The most obvious of the large holders is anonymous founder Satoshi Nakamoto. Whether one person or a group, Nakamoto possesses approximately 1 million bitcoins from the early days. That is equivalent to about 5.2% of the total supply – a very large number.

Nobody knows who Nakamoto is, but it is certainly a risk to have this amount of coins in the hands of one person/entity.

 Coinbase even listed this factor as a risk to its business on its S-1 form when it went public in April 2021. Under the risk section, the company outlined “the identification of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous person or persons who developed Bitcoin, or the transfer of Satoshi’s Bitcoins” as a risk to Bitcoin and, by extension, Coinbase’s business. 

While speculating on Nakamoto’s identity is a fool’s game, and these coins could easily be lost forever, it is easy to see how Coinbase listed this as a risk on its filing. The fact is that one entity or person holds 5.2% of the supply, and nobody has any idea who.

Bitcoin whales

Looking beyond Nakamoto, there are plenty of wallets which contain a lot of Bitcoin. One study by the National Bureau of Economic Research outlines that the top 10,000 bitcoin investors control one-third of the total supply.

That figure is an estimate and is “likely an understatement since we cannot rule out that some of the largest addresses are controlled by the same entity”, according to the study. For example, it doesn’t include the aforementioned 5.2% of coins controlled by Nakamoto, as it cannot be known whether Nakamoto is one individual.  

Seeing as Bitcoin returned the equivalent of 230% compounded annually between 2011 and 2021, and in doing so outperformed every major financial asset class in the world, perhaps it is not surprising that a small group of early adopters control significant amounts of the supply.

A $2,000 investment in 2010 would have netted you 10,000 bitcoins, which today is worth over $26 million. The select few who got involved in those early days and held onto their stash today hold significant amounts of the supply.

Today, only 114 addresses contain 10,000 BTC or more (with exchange addresses likely some of those) and those 114 addresses contain nearly 3 million BTC, or 15.5% of the total supply.

The below table shows quite how much Bitcoin is locked up in a small number of the top addresses.

Entities that hold large amounts of Bitcoin

Branching out from individuals, there are also entities which hold massive amounts of Bitcoin.

The first to spring to mind is Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy, who own 130,000 bitcoins, 0.68% of the total supply. This is the most by any public company and some fear that should this ever hit the market, then the Bitcoin price may be dented downward, such is the quantity of bitcoins that MicroStrategy hold. 

While MicroStrategy is the public company which holds the most Bitcoin, the private Chinese company, which developed the cryptocurrency EOS, owns 140,000 bitcoins. This makes it the largest known holding by any one company. 

Final thoughts

It is true that Bitcoin’s unique fundamentals make it a uniquely decentralised asset. The way the proof-of-work mechanism functions and the fact that no insiders started with any coins (even Nakamoto had to mine that stash) have helped make this decentralised quality a reality.

But despite this decentralisation, there do exist several big holders who hold enough coins that the market could be rocked, at least in the short-term, were anything to ever happen that led to those coins hitting the market.

The scale of Bitcoin’s rise has been so staggering that some of those early casuals who bought in for pennies are now in possession of monster stacks worth millions upon millions. As for Satoshi Nakamoto’s net worth in November 2021 at the Bitcoin all-time high? A cool $70 billion, good for 15th richest person in the world.

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Bitcoin, stocks seesaw after 0.50% ECB rate hike jolts markets

  • Bitcoin retested the $25,000 area, while S&P 500 had gained about 1% after plunging on ECB interest rate hike news.
  • The ECB on Thursday surprised with a 50 basis point rate hike.
  • Reports that JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are looking to help First Republic Bank buoyed stocks.

Bitcoin and stocks have recovered slightly after trading lower as investors reacted to the latest monetary policy news from the European Central Bank (ECB.)

On Thursday, markets were digesting recent events around US banks and the possible ramifications to the Federal Reserve’s next move on its rate hikes when the ECB announced a surprise 50 basis points interest rate hike. Stocks reacted lower and so did the crypto market, with crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe suggesting the Fed could follow suit at its meeting next week. 

S&P 500, Bitcoin recover after ECB news

The S&P 500 staged a slight recovery, thanks to the resurgence of regional bank shares.

Despite trading down 0.7% at one point, the benchmark index was up 1% at 12:20 pm ET, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average that had initially plunged by more than 300 points, reversed and was hugging gains with just over 100 points, or 0.3% higher. Elsewhere, the Nasdaq Composite was up by 1.5%.

While US stocks have rebounded higher amid reports that banking giants JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley were coming to the aid of embattled lender First Republic Bank, concerns remain and investors continue to be cautious. 

Bitcoin toyed with resistance around $25,000 on Thursday as cryptocurrencies continued to track events around the stock market.

The flagship cryptocurrency, which traded lower earlier in the day amid the highlighted broader market downswing, showed it’s still highly correlated to equities despite last week’s spike that had some observers suggesting a rising decorrelation.

Indeed, as CoinJournal analyst Dan Ashmore argues in our deep dive published today, Bitcoin could eventually decouple from other risk assets. However, that’s an outlook that mostly doesn’t apply to the current trading scenario, with the two assets largely in lockstep.

The post Bitcoin, stocks seesaw after 0.50% ECB rate hike jolts markets appeared first on CoinJournal.

No, Bitcoin is still as correlated as ever with the stock market – A Deep Dive

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s recent surge has drawn surprise as banking sector has pulled stock market down
  • Declaring this a break in the correlation trend is a mistake, writes our Data Analyst Dan Ashmore, who says Bitcoin remains risk-on
  • Both the stock market and Bitcoin continue to trade off interest rate expectations, aside from isolated episodes of systemic risk to Bitcoin, the numbers show
  • Recent week shows a slightly softer relationship than normal, amounting to a less dramatic a less dramatic version of the price action around the FTX and Celsius collapses in 2022
  • Normal correlation bound to be resumed soon, our data shows

One of the dominant storylines over the last year or two so has been the incredibly tight relationship between Bitcoin and the stock market. 

We will get into the numbers shortly, but the mantra is that when the stock market jumps, Bitcoin jumps more. When the stock market falls, Bitcoin falls more. That is the bottom line. But is it true still true?

Some market participants are starting to think that this relationship is shifting, especially given events of the past week. The word “uncorrelated” is thrown around a lot in markets, and now some are saying Bitcoin is making progress towards that status. I’m not so sure that is correct. 

Correlation has been high since 2022 started 

Let us first look back over the price action from the start of 2022, which more or less marked the stock market peak. 

I’ll get deeper in the next section, but the best way to kick off an assessment of correlation is by the old-fashioned eye test. Let’s begin by charting Bitcoin’s returns against the Nasdaq since the start of 2022:

It is immediately clear that there is a strong pattern here. 

Before looking at correlation coefficients, by looking at the respective price action we can see that the assets have been in lockstep aside from two (visually notable) periods. The first is August 2022, when Bitcoin lagged behind the Nasdaq’s gains. It still gained, but it was outperformed by the Nasdaq – uncommon for periods of expansion. This was shortly after the contagion crisis sparked by Celsius (it filed for bankruptcy in mid-July). 

The second period of divergence that jumps out is a much more noticeable one – November 2022. As the Nasdaq surged off softer inflation readings and optimism on interest rate policy, Bitcoin fell. Not only that, but it fell dramatically, down from $20,000 to $15,000. Of course, this was thanks to Sam Bankman-Fried and the FTX collapse, a bearish shock specific to crypto, much like Celsius was. 

Let’s now graph the correlation itself. I won’t get too deep on the math, but I have used the 60-Day Pearson indicator and rolled it back to the start of 2022.  

The results more or less back up what we discussed above. For the uninitiated, a correlation of 1 means a perfect relationship (the word count of this article and the number of words I have written this month, for example) while a correlation of 0 means no relationship (such as my word count per month and the number of T-Rexs spotted in New York City). 

Celsius and FTX collapses are clear below, while the other dip occurs around the time of LUNA (the stock market also fell around this time as we transitioned to high interest rate policy).

Correlation can be misleading

This shows correlation, but not necessarily causation. My old maths teacher had a great way of explaining this difference. Shark bites and ice cream purchases may be correlated, but nobody would argue that digging into Ben and Jerries makes you more likely to be hunted by a great white shark.

Instead, there is a lurking variable. In this case, on sunnier days, people are more likely to both swim at the beach and buy ice cream, and it is the swimming rather than the ice cream that makes a shark bite more likely. Swimming is the lurking variable. 

While that example is exaggerated (shark bites are extremely rare, in case I’m arising a phobia of yours!), the point is a good one. In financial markets, we have another lurking variable. In truth, we have lots of them – there are an imaginable amount of variables that affect the stock market – but the big one this past year has been the Federal Reserve and its interest rate policy. 

It is not the stock market that is causing Bitcoin to move, it is interest rate policy causing both the stock market and Bitcoin to move. And in turn, expectations about inflation have been the key factor feeding into interest rate expectations. This is why we have seen repeatedly big movements around CPI announcements and Fed meetings. 

There is a saying, “correlations of risk assets go to 1 in times of crisis”. And when we transitioned into a new interest rate paradigm in April 2022, when it became clear inflation was rampant, that is exactly what happened. 

All risk assets sold off, including both stocks and equities. Bitcoin, being more volatile, of course sold off more. And since then, bar the aforementioned episodes, the correlation has held. 

Is the correlation falling?

The big question is whether this correlation is falling. Indeed, that is the ultimate vision for Bitcoin. An uncorrelated store of value, akin to a digital form of gold.

Some have looked at the price action of the past week or two and declared that this means we are seeing a lower correlation. But I think this is simply a smaller version of what we saw during the Celsius and FTX “decouplings”. A short-term dip in correlation in response to a specific event. 

Bitcoin sold off drastically in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) troubles, before rebounding sharply once the US administration announced it was stepping in to guarantee deposits. 

The stock market, on the other hand, also sold off but to a far lesser degree. And then with the banking turmoil striking Europe yesterday, Bitcoin held firm while markets wobbled. The declaration was that this must mean the famous decoupling is taking place. 

I believe this is a fallacy and I think the numbers agree. 

Bitcoin first sold off aggressively because SVB had the potential to be a crisis on the scale of Celsius and FTX, as Circle, the issuer of the world’s second-biggest stablecoin, USDC, holds $3.3 billion of reserves in the bank (and the original fear was that it may hold more, before the number was clarified). 

USDC hence depegged, falling to below 90 cents on many exchanges. Obviously, a USDC collapse would have been harrowing for the industry and hence Bitcoin plummeted, falling to around $20,000. 

While SVB presented an ominous threat to financial markets as a whole, the danger within cryptocurrency was elevated because of the importance of USDC to the industry, especially following the shutdown of BUSD last month.

With 25% of Circle’s reserves in cash, there was fear of insolvency until it was clarified that only 8.25% of reserves were held in SVB, before the US administration stepped in to guarantee deposits in any case. 

Once this fear was over, Bitcoin rallied back, reversing the fall when the crisis came to light. But stocks didn’t jump to the same extent. This makes sense.  

Besides, the price action was not all that dramatic and the supposed “decoupling” was hardly drastic. European banks were hit Wednesday, but Thursday has largely seen a rebound, while on a whole, the stock market is doing just fine, showing moderate gains. 

Looking at the correlation metric, it has barely moved over a longer time frame such as 60-day, and is already bouncing back. The 30-day metric shows more movement, but as with any smaller sample size, is always more volatile and less indicative. Both metrics already appear to be bouncing back in any case.

Whatever way you swing it, a simple glance at the previously mentioned chart comparing the Nasdaq to Bitcoin is all you need to know. Bitcoin is trading like an extreme-risk asset, and that much is quite clear.

The trillion dollar question is whether this will change in the future. Can Bitcoin finally decouple from risk assets and establish itself as an uncorrelated store of value? Can it become a true hedge asset?

That may happen one day. But it hasn’t happened yet.

The post No, Bitcoin is still as correlated as ever with the stock market – A Deep Dive appeared first on CoinJournal.

Bitcoin price recovery at risk amid new Credit Suisse crisis

  • Bitcoin and other financial assets now have a Credit Suisse problem.

  • Credit Suisse credit default swaps signal that the company could collapse.

  • Credit Suisse stock price plunged by 20% and reached a record low.

Bitcoin price came under intense pressure on Wednesday as the banking sector came under a significant strain. BTC pulled back from the year-to-date high of $26,548, to a low of $24,526. It has retreated by ~7.8% from its highest point this week.

Credit Suisse crisis deepens

Bitcoin price has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days as investors reacted to the ongoing performance in the banking sector. After falling to a low of $19,500 last week, the coin made a spectacular recovery as it jumped to a high of $26,548. 

This rally happened after America’s regulators decided to bailout key banks like Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. They decided to provide a backstop for their depositors, many of whom were companies in the crypto industry, as we wrote here.

The most important part of the bailout was the fact that it saved USD Coin, the second-biggest stablecoin in the world. Circle, the parent company of USDC, had over $3.3 billion deposited in the company. If it had failed, the ripple effect on the crypto industry would have been dire.

Now, it seems like we have another bank crisis. Credit Suisse stock price plunged by more than 20% after the company lost confidence of another key investor. Earlier this month, the company’s biggest shareholder, Harris Associates, decided to sell its entire stake. 

And on Wednesday, Saudi National Bank said that it will not provide more finance to the company. Therefore, there are significant risks that the company will fall. Indeed, its credit default swaps have risen, signaling that investors expect the bank to fall.

A collapse of Credit Suisse would have some positives for Bitcoin prices. For one, it will lead to a pause in interest rate hikes by the Fed and other central banks.

Bitcoin price forecast

The BTC/USD price soared to a high of 26,548 on Tuesday and then pulled back to a low of 24,102. As it dropped, BTC moved below the key support level at 25,275, the highest point in February. On a positive note, the pair’s 50-day and 100-day moving averages have formed a bullish crossover. The coin has also formed what looks like a small head and shoulders pattern. 

Therefore, I suspect that it will continue falling in the next key support at $23,000. A move above the key resistance point at 25,275 will invalidate the bearish view.

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